Timeline Tracker

Frontier Watch: AGI Countdown

Consolidating prediction market benchmarks to estimate the advent of Artificial General Intelligence.

Live AGI Prediction Countdown

0Years

0Days

00Hours

00Mins

00Secs

Velocity:▲ 0 days further than last week

Synthesized prediction dynamically weighted from Polymarket (70%) and Manifold Markets (30%) due to missing Metaculus source.

Market Source

Metaculus Community

UnavailableMedian Target

Weight: 0% (Fallback Applied)Reweighted to other markets

Market Source

Polymarket Contracts

Mar 2029Median Target

Weight: 70% (Fallback Active)

Market Source

Manifold Markets

Nov 2028Median Target

Weight: 30% (Fallback Active)

⚠️ Metaculus Fallback Active: Metaculus target is currently missing or unauthenticated. The AGI Countdown timer has automatically reallocated the forecast weights: Polymarket is weighted at 70% and Manifold Markets is weighted at 30%.

Capability Milestone Checklist

Status	Milestone Target	Details / Historical Accomplice	Achieved Date
✅	Pass MMLU-Pro > 85%	Achieve a score of 89.2% on MMLU-Pro, exceeding human-expert baselines.Achieved by: GPT-5	2026-03
✅	Pass GPQA Diamond > 70%	Graduate-level chemistry, physics, and biology reasoning benchmark.Achieved by: GPT-5	2026-03
✅	HumanEval > 95%	Autonomous code synthesis benchmark.Achieved by: Claude 4.6 Opus	2026-05
✅	Autonomous SWE-bench > 50%	Solve more than 50% of real GitHub issues autonomously.Achieved by: Devin 2.0	2026-04
🔲	PhD-level reasoning in 3+ fields	Expert evaluation across biology, clinical medicine, and math.	—
🔲	Economic impact study > $1T	Formal study proving $1T in GDP growth solely due to autonomous systems.	—